Five-Year Financial Forecast Spring 2026
Orrville City Schools files a five-year forecast twice each year. This required report is a long-range planning tool that shows financial trends over time, helping the district plan responsibly and avoid surprises.
We also know many families in our community are feeling rising costs—from groceries to utilities to property taxes. Orrville City Schools shares that reality. This forecast is our way of telling the story clearly: the rules governing school funding in Ohio changed, and those changes affect how school revenue grows over time—even as everyday costs continue to rise.
Why the outlook changed: state policy, not local “operations.”
1) Ohio’s funding mechanics are shifting more responsibility to local taxpayers
A statewide “Balanced Property Tax Reform” fact sheet highlights the broader context that many districts are experiencing:
Ohio ranks 45th in the nation in state funding for public schools.
The fact sheet states that in 1991, homeowners and farmers paid 47% of school property taxes, and today they pay nearly 70%.
It also notes that, inflation-adjusted, state school funding grew less than 1% per year over 22 years.
The graphic illustrates a declining state share (shown as 45% “twenty years ago” vs. 33% “now”).
Those points align with what communities are feeling: higher local tax pressure and slower growth in state support, even as costs increase.
2) This is one of the biggest mechanical changes since HB 920 (1976)
Ohio’s property tax “reduction factors” framework was enacted in 1976 as House Bill 920.
That system is also tied to the 20-mill floor concept (which limits how far reduction factors can reduce certain school operating millage).
3) HB 129 changes the 20-mill floor calculation starting in tax year 2026
The Ohio Legislative Service Commission says that starting in tax year 2026, HB 129 will require fixed-sum levies for current expenses (including emergency and substitute levies) to be counted in a district's 20-mill floor calculation when a county is reappraised or updated every three years.
LSC also explains the practical effect: adding these levies can push a district above the floor, and the district then won’t see full revenue growth from levies affected by reduction factors until it falls back to the floor again.
Plain-English takeaway: We recognize property taxes have increased for many residents, but under these new state rules, those increases do not translate into the same level of growth in school operating revenue as they once did.
What Orrville’s Spring 2026 Five-Year Forecast shows
Based on Orrville’s levy structure and the recent state law changes described above, the Spring 2026 forecast projects:
Local property tax revenue is expected to “flatline” for several years, with only minor growth mainly tied to new construction, because Orrville is projected to be lifted off the 20-mill floor under the new calculation.
State funding is projected to decrease again. In the forecast’s state aid lines, Orrville’s direct state aid is projected to be about $1.03 million lower in FY26–FY27 than it was in FY23–FY24 (roughly $7.82M → $6.79M).
The forecast also indicates that expenses are on the rise, despite constrained revenue growth.
Rising costs aren’t just staffing-related
Just as households and local businesses do, school districts face steady cost increases—many of which are beyond local control. Orrville’s forecast reflects pressure in areas such as
Utilities and building operations (heat, electric, water, repairs, maintenance)
Transportation (fuel, parts, buses, service needs)
Supplies and instructional materials (including technology replacement cycles)
Special education services and supports (required services and specialized needs)
Safety and security needs
Insurance and purchased services
Even if staffing stayed exactly the same, many basic operating costs would still rise year after year.
Balanced Property Tax Reform fact sheet (PDF):
Ohio Legislative Service Commission—HB 129 Bill Analysis (PDF):
https://www.legislature.ohio.gov/download?key=26759
Ohio Department of Taxation—Property Tax (Real Property) publication (PDF) (HB 920/1976 reference):
OSBA—Understanding School Levies (Fact Sheet PDF):
https://www.ohioschoolboards.org/sites/default/files/OSBAUnderstandingLeviesFactSheet.pdf